THE 2026 NORTH TEXAS MARKET REPORT

An Economist’s View on the "Great Reset" in DFW Real Estate Prepared By: Bryan Hendricks, Real Estate Economist & REALTOR® | United Real Estate DFW Properties Date: January 17, 2026

Executive Summary: The "Wait-and-See" Era is Over For the past three years, the North Texas housing market has been defined by "noise": soaring interest rates, paralyzed inventory, and institutional competition. Many families have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a clear sign. That sign arrived the first week of January 2026. Driven by historic federal policy shifts, 2026 is shaping up to be the year of the "Great Reset." We are moving away from a market defined by scarcity and paralyzing interest rates into one defined by affordability, selection, and stability. For buyers and sellers in Justin, Haslet, and Fort Worth, the window of opportunity has officially reopened. Here are the three key economic "signals" defining our market in 2026:

Signal 1: The "Federal Pivot" is Driving Rates Down On January 8, 2026, the Federal Administration directed a historic $200 Billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities. This is not market speculation; it is massive, direct intervention designed to force mortgage rates down. The Forecast: The stubborn "6.0% barrier" has broken. We are already seeing 30-year fixed rates dip into the high 5s, with potential to reach the low-to-mid 5s by peak spring trading season. Local Impact: For a typical family in North Texas, this rate drop translates to roughly $300 - $450 per month in increased purchasing power. Homes that were financially out of reach in late 2025 are now back on the table.

Signal 2: The "Inventory Unlock" Has Begun For two years, homeowners with 3% and 4% mortgages have been "locked in," unwilling to sell and trade up to a 7% rate. That dynamic is evaporating. The Data: Approximately 34% of DFW homeowners currently have a mortgage rate above 5%. As market rates drop to meet them, the financial penalty for moving disappears. The Forecast: We project a significant increase in new listings (8-10%) hitting the market, starting in Q1. We are shifting from a "scarcity market" to a "selection market," giving buyers in areas like Haslet and Justin more choices than they’ve had since 2022.

Signal 3: Main Street is Taking Back the Market On January 7, 2026, a federal moratorium was placed on large institutional investors buying single-family homes. Wall Street’s appetite for starter homes is being curbed. The Forecast: 2026 will be the year of the Family-to-Family transaction. You will no longer be competing against billion-dollar hedge funds making all-cash offers on median-priced homes. Local Impact: This will lead to a return of stable, healthy price appreciation—likely in the 3-4% range for North Texas—protecting equity without the chaotic price spikes of the past.

The Bottom Line: Strategy Over Speculation The economic data is clear: the paralyzing headwinds of the last few years are turning into tailwinds. Waiting for rates to return to 3% is not a strategy; it’s nostalgia. The most successful buyers and sellers in 2026 will be those who act on the current data. Don't navigate this pivot alone. Let’s connect to build a personalized strategy that turns this macroeconomic news into your personal net worth.

Bryan Hendricks Real Estate Economist & REALTOR® United Real Estate DFW Properties Serving Justin, Haslet, & Fort Worth [940-453-1106] | [bryan@bryanhendricks.com [bhendricks.com]